★ 国网吉林省电力有限公司松原供电公司 李杨

摘要：针对现有规划方法在应对碳排放不确定性和新能源波动方面的不足，本文提出了一种基于碳排放约束的电力系统多场景规划方法。该方法分析了电力系统碳排放的主要影响因素及多场景特性，构建了包含碳排放总量约束和碳排放强度约束的多场景优化模型，将碳排放超额部分通过碳交易成本机制与系统经济性进行耦合，并采用两阶段优化框架，将机组启停决策与各场景下的出力优化相结合，并利用列和约束生成算法（C&CG）有效降低了大规模场景下的求解复杂度。实验结果表明，本文方法能够在不同新能源出力及负荷波动情景下，有效降低系统碳排放总量与碳交易成本，并实现碳排放约束的鲁棒满足，较传统方法在低碳性与经济性方面均具有明显优势。

关键词：碳排放约束；电力系统；多场景规划；规划方法

Abstract: In response to the shortcomings of existing planning methods in dealing with carbon emission uncertainties and fluctuations of new energy , this paper proposes a multi-scenario planning method for power systems based on carbon emission constraints. The main influencing factors of power system carbon emissions and the characteristics of multi-scenarios are analyzed, and a multi- scenario optimization model including carbon emission total quantity constraints and carbon emission intensity constraints is constructed. The excess carbon emissions are coupled with the system economy through the carbon trading cost mechanism. A two-stage optimization framework is adopted, combining the unit  start-stop decision with the output optimization in each scenario, and the Column Generation and Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is utilized to effectively reduce the complexity of solving large-scale scenarios. Experimental results show that this method can effectively reduce the total carbon emissions and carbon trading costs ofthe system under different scenarios of new energy output and load fluctuations, and achieve robust satisfaction of carbon emission constraints . Compared with traditional methods, it has obvious advantages in terms of low-carbon and economic performance.

Key words: Carbon emission constraints; Power system; Multi-scenario planning; Planning metho

在线预览：基于碳排放约束的电力系统多场景规划方法研究.pdf

摘自《自动化博览》2026年5月刊